As we inch closer to the 2008 presidential election, the issues continue to pile up on both sides of the ideological aisle. Let’s take a look at some of the more recent developments.
Who Will Serve as Picard’s Number One?
It may be a bit early – even presumptuous – to hook up a candidate with a possible running mate, but in this election cycle there’s no reason why an educated guess – or even wild speculation – should be ignored.
First, let’s look at whom the Democrats may choose. According to polls, it seems that the majority of Democrat voters have already decided their candidate will be Hillary Clinton. I have always believed Hillary will be the nominee, and as the campaign moves on, I feel that it is almost a sure thing. For one thing, she has succeeded in “softening up her image.” While I think it’s only a temporary front, she seems to be convincing the voters. In a recent AP-IPSOS poll of 1000 people, she was ahead of Barack Obama by 34% to 20%, and that spread holds very close in looking at other polls as well.
If she were to get the nomination, whom would she pick as her running mate? As I’ve said previously, I think she will look outside the group of candidates. Perhaps she’ll pick Mark Warner from Virginia, or Ret. General Wesley Clark. In the press and on the Net, I continue to see Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson, Al Gore (he says no way) and even Barack Obama attached to Hillary as possible running mates. I suppose some of them could have a fair shot, especially Dodd or Richardson, but I consider Obama a far reach. Right now, he has nothing special to offer Hillary’s campaign but that could easily change. Alternatively, Dodd could be an asset to her campaign due to his experience in D.C., and Richardson could help pull in the Hispanic vote.
It’s harder to pin down the Republican leader, but there are three candidates favored as the possible front-runner in the polls: Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. I will skip Thompson for this round as he only officially declared his candidacy several weeks ago. I also don’t feel there is enough known about his beliefs, ideas, preferences or proposed policies to hazard even an educated guess whom he would choose as running mate.
That leaves us with Giuliani and Romney, and at this juncture, I believe Duncan Hunter could be the best choice for either of them. His name has been mentioned in the press, but only on a list that includes second tier candidate Mike Huckabee, potential candidates George Pataki (I don’t see this happening) and Condi Rice (she says no way), and Tim Pawlenty. But frankly, until there is a more solid leader for the Republican nomination, I think it’s foolish to try to link a suitable running mate with a candidate. The Republican race is almost wide open at this date.
From Toe Dipping to Skinny Dipping
Getting back to Fred Thompson, he finally declared his candidacy for President after months of putting together an organization, raising money, and keeping the rest of the Republican hopefuls guessing. That big toe he dipped into the pond has given way to the whole enchilada. The entry of Thompson in the race has had a marked effect in the standings of the other candidates. Recent polls show Romney back down to 9% and in an American Research Group poll from September 16th, Giuliani was at 24% with Thompson virtually tied at 23%. It appears that Thompson may be picking up voters lost by Romney. It remains to be seen if the support shown in Iowa and New Hampshire for Romney will be able to carry him through, and also if the initial support shown Thompson will be lasting or just a blip. Thompson does have a good support base in the Southern states, however.
Thompson does have a big question mark next to his name, however, because he is the first presidential candidate who is a former lobbyist – and many voters have a dubious opinion of lobbyists. Political consultant and columnist Dick Morris points out that Thompson has promised to “shake up Washington,” but how can he do that if his campaign is full of corporate insiders? Developments in this campaign will be intriguing.
Hillary Clinton Holds Her Own
Back on the Democrat front, Hillary Clinton maintains a strong position over Barack Obama in the national polls. For example, American Research Group has Clinton at 39% and Obama at 20% and Rasmussen Reports show Clinton at 40% and Obama at 20%. However, the Winthrop University/ETV Poll, taken at a predominantly black University in South Carolina, has some interesting results. Among 700 blacks polled, Obama has 35.4%; Clinton, 30.7%; and John Edwards limping in at 3%. No other candidate rises above the 1% mark. However, 28.7% of those surveyed were undecided, a huge potential for votes that Democrat candidates can be expected to target. Unsurprisingly, there was virtually no surprise for Republicans in this particular poll.
Out of Left Field
A surprise of sorts came to light last week when another black candidate, conservative Alan Keyes, joined the race (presumably on the Republican side, as there is no mention of party affiliation on his web site). Keyes ran for president in 1996 and 2000. His last attempt at gaining public office was in 2004 when he ran against Barack Obama in the Illinois senatorial race. Keyes is a somewhat colorful character who served as a diplomat under Ronald Reagan and has had his own radio show. He has a reputation for being rather outspoken and one thing he will be remembered for was back in the 2004 campaign when, on a cable TV news show, he called Obama a “socialist and a liar” and said that “Christ would never vote for Obama because of his position on abortion.” It’s doubtful he poses any threat to any of the announced candidates thus far, but his hat in the ring should provide some zest to the proceedings.
Everything Old is New Again…and More Expensive
Last week, Hillary Clinton announced her “new” healthcare plan, which she claims differs from her old (1993) healthcare plan. John Edwards and Barack Obama have also introduced theirs. Could this election turn into a “Democrat healthcare battle” and nothing get resolved? The particulars are all being studied, sorted out and changed accordingly, making it impossible to determine which may be the best plan. Only one thing is certain: if any of these Democrats win, his/her plan will cost the taxpayer more dollars.
It’s important to note that the report on Iraq to the President and Congress by General Petraeus was received with decidedly mixed feelings. The President said he would follow the report’s suggestions and, predictably, Democrat leaders in Congress claimed the report was written for Bush to further “his” war effort. Their complaining may have backfired, however, as the controversy engendered by the report may have given the Republicans a positive boost in the upcoming election. The far Left organization MoveOn.org placed the now-infamous ad in the New York Times, calling General Petraeus a liar who has betrayed his country. This further miscalculation by the Left has elicited criticism from Republicans and some Democrats who quickly realized that attacking a four-star general does not sit well with the American public.
Check It Out
In closing, I would like to tell you about a great website I came across, which is a joint venture of the Congressional Quarterly and the St. Petersburg Times. It’s called Politifact, and its combined staff of reporters and news researchers sort through commentary, claims, and spin to bring you closer to the truth about what is being served on the political table for your consumption. Be sure to bookmark the site for your future use in the 14 months remaining to Election 2008, as it should provide a wealth of useful information.
